Scientific Bowl Picks

We may look like we’re just sitting in front of the TV eating snacks by the fistful, but we are actually studying science, right football fans?

To the discerning eye, good teams have chemistry.  Many team names are derived from biological organisms, like bears and lions and various breeds of dogs.  Physics is an especially important aspect of football; when a linebacker comes through unblocked and sacks the quarterback, we may shout “yeaahhh!”  What we’re actually thinking, though, is F=ma.  Force equals mass times acceleration.

In that scientific spirit, I spent hours (OK, a few minutes) examining statistical tables compiled from this past college football season to enlighten my opinions on upcoming bowl games.

One thing that got my attention is that almost all of the top teams have this trait in common:  strong defense.  For example, the 2012 statistical leaders in total team defense included Alabama (#1), Florida State (#2), Florida (#5), Notre Dame (#6) and LSU (#8).

While passing is a crowd-pleasing aspect of the game, it was not a crucial component for the most successful teams.  In the statistical category Team Passing Offense, well down the list were Oregon (#66), Notre Dame (#75), Alabama (#84), Kansas State (#85), LSU (#90), Stanford (#92), and Florida (#114).  Ohio State, a team that went undefeated, was 101st.  (They are not eligible to play in a bowl game until the players give back the free tattoos they received in violation of NCAA rules.)

What we conclude, then, is that the teams with the highest success rates typically a) keep their opponents from scoring very often; and b) run the ball more than they throw it.  Considering those factors, and with other statistics and guesswork mixed in, here are my predictions for some of this year’s bowl games…

Holiday Bowl     Baylor (7-5) vs. UCLA (9-4)

Baylor was first nationally in total offense, and next-to-last in total defense.  The Bears’ scrimmages must have been chaotic.  UCLA (#20 in total offense) can score enough to win.

Alamo Bowl     Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon State (9-3)

Statistically, Oregon State has a slight edge in total offense, and a significant advantage on defense.  Because it will be sort of a home game for Texas,  though, I’m going with an unscientific hunch that the Longhorns will prevail.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl     Clemson (10-2) vs. LSU (10-2)

Last year Clemson gave up 70 points to West Virginia in the Orange Bowl, and they were presumed to be good back then, too.  One team named the Tigers will win, but it won’t be Clemson.

Sun Bowl     Georgia Tech (6-7!) vs. USC (7-5)

A guy on a pogo stick could gain 100+ yards rushing against USC’s defense.  On the other hand, Georgia Tech’s pass defense surrendered 22 TDs.  Matt Barkley might add 3 or 4 more to that total in a Trojan victory.

Rose Bowl     Stanford (11-2) vs. Wisconsin (8-5)

Wisconsin likes to run the ball, but stopping the run is what Stanford does best — the Cardinal was #3 nationally in rushing defense.  I’m picking Stanford.

Orange Bowl     Northern Illinois (12-1) vs. Florida State (11-2)

Sometimes statistics can be deceptive.  Northern Illinois put up impressive numbers, but they did so against schools like Tennessee-Martin, Army, Buffalo and UMass.  In this bowl, the Huskies will discover that Florida State is no pushover.

Sugar Bowl     Florida (11-1) vs. Louisville (10-2)

As noted earlier, the Florida Gators are defensive beasts.  Louisville represents the Big East Conference.  It might be closer than that comparison would suggest, but I do think Florida will win.

Fiesta Bowl     Kansas State (11-1) vs. Oregon (11-0)

Kansas State averaged 40 points per game; Oregon averaged 50!  This could be the most entertaining game of the bowl season; both will score often but the Ducks will win.

Cotton Bowl     Texas A&M (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

Aggie Freshman QB Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy.  Among other things, he averaged almost 100 yards per game rushing.  Oklahoma QB Landry Jones was no slouch, though; he threw for almost 4,000 yards and 29 TDs.  I’m taking the Sooners in an upset.

BCS Championship     Notre Dame (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1)

These teams led the country in scoring defense, averaging just a tick over 10 points per game.  Alabama has the nation’s most statistically efficient QB in A.J. McCarron (26 TD, only 3 Int).  Even though I’d like to see Notre Dame break the SEC championship monopoly, the Crimson Tide will rise, and scientists will ponder its effects on marine biology.

Tom’s Top 25, 2012 Edition

Get ready:  It’s almost time for the resumption of college football’s historic rivalries.  Well, some of them, anyway; because of conference realignments, we also now get unfamiliar matchups like Texas vs. West Virginia (not Texas A&M).  If you’re yearning to see the old traditional battles — classics like Nebraska against Oklahoma — you can hope that both teams have mediocre seasons and fill their respective leagues’ slots in the Insight Bowl.

In the past it was customary at this time of year to pick a team from the Southeastern Conference and make it the preseason favorite to win the national championship.  Since demolishing tradition is now the vogue in college football, I’m picking a team from a different conference this season – pretty wild, huh?

However, I am sticking to the tradition of posting my preseason predictions publicly, despite of a lot of encouragement to knock it off.  So here they are, along with a few random observations.  I’m confident that by the time the championship game is played a few months from now, these picks won’t all be wrong…

1.  USC          Stars like Matt Barkley, Robert Woods and T.J. McDonald feel they have unfinished business.

2.  LSU          Key games against So. Carolina and Alabama are in Tiger Stadium.

3.  Oklahoma         Averaged almost 40 points/game last year; 19 starters return

4.  Alabama          Two national championships in past 3 seasons

5.  Oregon          These Ducks don’t walk, they sprint.

6.  South Carolina          Eleven wins last year, could be even better in 2012

7.  Michigan          Season opener vs. Alabama could set tone for entire season

8.  Florida State          One of these years, high expectations for Seminoles will come true.

9.  Texas          After two sub-par seasons, Texas climbs back toward elite status.

10. Boise State          Coach Chris Peterson’s six-season record:  73-6

11. Arkansas          The big question mark is how Razorbacks respond to the coaching change following Bobby Petrino’s dismissal.

12. West Virginia           Move to Big 12 conference will provide stiffer competition

13. Wisconsin          Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball is back for his senior year.

14. Louisville          Cardinals are the best team in mediocre Big East.

15. Georgia          Easy schedule should help:  Bulldogs avoid Alabama, Arkansas and LSU.

16. Ohio State          Sanctions keep Buckeyes out of bowl game, but at least 9 wins seem possible.

17. Florida          The defense is strong; can the offense score enough points to win games?

18. Michigan State          Same as Florida (above)

19. Stanford          If you’re good enough, you don’t need Luck.

20. Oklahoma State          Finished 3rd in final polls last season, but are missing some important players from that outstanding team.

21. Nebraska          Huskers have a tough mid-season stretch with Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan in four weeks.

22. Virginia Tech          Hokies have 8 consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins.

23. Southern Methodist          Mustangs have a chance to be this year’s dark horse.

24. Georgia Tech          Opponents find it difficult to defend against Yellow Jackets’ bizarre offense.

25. TCU          Four consecutive top-15 finishes, but stepping up to Big 12 in 2012

Avert Your Eyes

If you enjoy watching college football, this year’s slate of bowl games just might cure you.

There are 35 games, which means that 70 teams will participate;  demand for good teams far exceeds supply.  Thirteen teams with break-even records — 6 wins, 6 losses — got bowl bids, and one (UCLA) actually had a losing record.  This will make for some ugly games, I’m afraid.

Florida and Ohio State faced each other in the 2007 BCS Championship game, but this year they both limp into the Gator Bowl with 6-6 records.  The Meineke Car Care Bowl matches Northwestern (6-6), a school that hasn’t won a bowl game since 1949, against Texas A&M (6-6), which fired coach Mike Sherman at the end of the season.

Mississippi State (6-6) and Wake Forest (6-6) square off in the Music City Bowl.  The Bulldogs are 73rd in the country in scoring; the Demon Deacons are 75th in total defense, so a resistible force struggles against a movable object.

Arizona State fired its coach, Dennis Erickson, and then accepted an invitation to get stomped in the MAACO Bowl.  Its opponent, Boise State, would be playing in a BCS bowl if their kicker hadn’t pushed the potential game winning field goal wide right against TCU.  The Broncos will take out their frustration on the Sun Devils, who are mainly known for amassing penalties.

The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl presents two schools that must be starved for attention – why else would they risk more public humiliation?  As noted above, UCLA had a losing record (6-7) but petitioned the NCAA for permission to play in Kraft’s cheesy bowl.  Illinois (6-6) does have one player who is quite good; the aptly named defensive end Whitney Mercilus led the nation in sacks.  He will probably  be merciless against the Bruins’ offensive line, which yielded 24 sacks.  This game has already set one record that will never be broken:  Both coaches (Ron Zook and Rick Neuheisel) have already been fired.

Now, here are a few thoughts about the games you’ll want to see:

•  Fiesta Bowl          Stanford (11-1) vs. Oklahoma State (11-1)

Both teams feature excellent QBs in Andrew Luck and Brandon Weeden.  Both teams have shaky pass defenses.  The Cowboys have a slight edge because of All-American wide receiver Justin Blackmon.

•  Cotton Bowl          Arkansas (10-2) vs. Kansas State (10-2)

Eight of Kansas State’s wins were by 7 points or less.  They’ll have trouble staying close to high-scoring Arkansas.

•  Rose Bowl          Oregon (11-2) vs. Wisconsin (11-2)

The Ducks averaged 46.2 points per game, third best in the country.  Wisconsin was fourth with 44.6 ppg.  Wisconsin plays solid defense too, but they haven’t faced the kind of speed that Oregon possesses.

•  Sugar Bowl          Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2)

Both of Virginia Tech’s losses were to the same team – Clemson.  The Hokies’ defense is solid, but they’ll have to be spectacular against Michigan QB Denard Robinson.  He threw for over 2,000 yards and ran for over 1,000.  This will be close, but the edge goes to Michigan.

•  BCS National Championship Game        LSU (13-0) vs. Alabama (11-1)

Louisiana State allowed only 10.5 points per game, second best in the country.  You know who was best, right?  Yes, Alabama — 8.8 points per game.  I’m thinking the Crimson Tide won’t miss four field goals again as they did against LSU on November 5.  Alabama wins the rematch.

Tom’s Top 25, 2011 Edition

Once again, it’s time for college football experts to predict which team from the Southeastern Conference will win the national championship.  There are other conferences, of course, but for five straight years an SEC team has won the trophy:  Florida in 2006, followed by LSU, Florida again, Alabama, and Auburn last season.  A lot of teams from the conference are capable of winning it in 2011 — not you, Vanderbilt.

The entire Big Ten Conference should be on academic probation since they don’t seem to be able to count past 10.  Guys, with the addition of Nebraska this season (after Penn State years ago), you are now up to 12 teams!  The Big 12 Conference is also math-challenged; it has 10 teams this season, since Colorado joined Nebraska in saying goodbye.  Suggestion to the conference commissioners:  trade names!

None of the football teams in the Big East Conference are very good, but at least they are geographically located in the eastern part of the U.S. — until next year, when Texas Christian joins the league.  The Pac-12 Conference, as it is now known, is right about the number of teams it has, but seems to think that Utah and Colorado are on the west coast.

As several of you have pointed out, I am no expert.  That doesn’t stop me from making my annual preseason Top-25 predictions, though.  In fact, here they are now, along with a few random observations:

1.  Alabama (SEC)   Showdown with LSU on 11/5 is a home game for Tide

2.  Oklahoma (Big XII)

3.  Oregon (Pac-12)   Lost BCS championship by 3 points last year

4.  Boise St. (Mountain West)   QB Kellen Moore and 8 defensive starters return

5.  Louisiana St.  (SEC)  Tough road games at Oregon, Miss. St., Alabama

6.  Florida State (Atlantic Coast Conference)

7.  Stanford (Pac-12)   Cardinal has nation’s best QB, Andrew Luck

8.  Oklahoma St. (Big XII)  Lots of talent returns from 11-2 team

9.  Nebraska (Big 10)

10.  Texas A&M  (Big XII)

11.  Virginia Tech (ACC)

12.  Arkansas (SEC)

13.  TCU (Mountain West)  Defense will hold fort while offense gains experience

14.  Michigan State (Big 10)

15.  South Carolina (SEC)

16.  Wisconsin (Big 10)

17.  Notre Dame (Ind.)    Traditional basketball school shows promise in football

18.  Mississippi St. (SEC)   Another 9-win season isn’t out of the question

19.  Auburn (SEC)

20.  Ohio St.  (Big 10)   Suspended players may have to give back tattoos.

21.  Arizona State (Pac-12)   Nineteen starters return for Sun Devils

22.  West Virginia (Big East)

23.  Penn State (Big 10)   Final year of Joe Paterno’s contract

24.  Central Florida (C-USA)   Won 11 last year; can they do it again?

25.  Florida (SEC)

Four Bowl Games Worth Watching

They have finally broken my spirit.  When I first started publishing my predictions of college football bowl games in 1994, there were “only” 19 games.  That means 38 teams played, and as we all know, in any given year there are not 38 good teams.

This year there are 35 bowl games, which means that 70 teams are playing.  Seventy!  Here’s how silly it has gotten:  There are 12 teams in the Southeastern Conference; 10 of them are going to bowls.  Pittsburgh was so thrilled about getting a bid to the BBVA Compass Bowl that they fired coach Dave Wannstedt.

With all these bowls, the names are becoming redundant:  There’s the Military Bowl (Maryland vs. East Carolina) and the Armed Forces Bowl (Army vs. SMU).  Similarly, we have the Independence Bowl (Georgia Tech vs. Air Force) and the Liberty Bowl (Central Florida vs. Georgia).  For those of a compassionate nature, you might like the Humanitarian Bowl (Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State) or the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (Boston College vs. Nevada).

With so many obscure bowls and undeserving teams, I just can’t do it anymore.  I can’t summon the enthusiasm to analyze individual and team stats from the 2010 season.  I’d like to warn you that East Carolina’s porous defense yielded an average of 43.42 points per game, the third-worst in the country… but who has the time to do that for 70 teams?

I used to enjoy calling your attention to facts like this:  Hawaii has the top passing offense in the nation, with almost 400 yards per game.  Its opponent in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl — Tulsa — was statistically next-to-last in pass defense.  Based on info like that, I would confidently predict that Hawaii would win.  And sometimes I’d be right.

But do any of us, other than the players’ families, care that BYU (6-6) is playing University of Texas-El Paso (6-6) for the New Mexico Bowl trophy?  Or that Ohio and Troy will each get $325,000 payouts for participating in the New Orleans Bowl?  Sorry, but I’m afraid you’re on your own for picking a winner in the Holiday Bowl (Hint:  Nebraska).

What I will do, though, is point out four games that might actually be worth watching.  Let me also suggest that if you are a fan of the University of Connecticut, you won’t want to be watching when the Huskies face Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

1)  The Rose Bowl matches undefeated Texas Christian against one-loss Wisconsin.  These teams tied for 4th in scoring offense, each having generated 520 points.  TCU was the nation’s top defensive team, though, while Wisconsin was 22nd in total defense and 29th in scoring defense.  On that basis, I give the edge to the Horned Frogs.

2)  Virginia Tech was humiliated in its second game of the season, losing to James Madison (coincidentally the shortest president of the U.S. at 5’4″ tall).  Since then the Hokies have turned their season around, winning 11 straight.  In that stretch they have not faced a quarterback with the skills of Stanford’s Andrew Luck, who threw for over 3,000 yards and ran for 438 more.  It may be close, but Stanford wins the Orange Bowl.

3)  Ohio State is a slight favorite over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl and should be able to at least slow down the Razorbacks’ high-powered offense.  Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor has been inconsistent throughout his career, but if Good Terrelle shows up, Ohio State will come out on top.

4)  The BCS championship game matches two great teams, Oregon and Auburn.  The Ducks have a slight statistical advantage, but something tells me that Cam Newton, this season’s Reggie Bush, will lead Auburn to victory.

There are some other games of at least passing interest (check out Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl if you get a chance), but these are probably the four best.  And just remember that any game — even if it’s Baylor vs. Illinois in the Texas Bowl — is worth watching if it gives you an excuse not to clean out the rain gutters.

Tom’s Top 25, 2010 Edition

Every year at this time, our sports department steps front-and-center to trumpet its picks for college football glory.  This is a topic of interest to, oh, three or four visitors to this site; for the rest of you, be patient — our usual stew of offbeat subject matter will return soon.

So with that stirring preamble out of the way, let’s get right to the predictions, along with an occasional rationalization for these choices:

1.  Alabama     The 2009 national champion brings back an excellent offense.  The question mark is the defense, which lost nine starters.

2.  Boise State     Twenty-two starters return, and they went 14-0 last year.

3.  Texas Christian     The Horned Frogs won 11 in ’08, 12 last year.  Could it be 13 victories this season?

4.  Ohio State

5.  Nebraska

6.  Florida     Tim Tebow’s departure did not leave the Gators helpless.

7.  Wisconsin     Standout RB John Clay and the entire offensive line returns.

8.  Virginia Tech     The Hokies have reached double digits in victories every season since 2004.

9.  Texas

10. Miami (FL)

11. Iowa     The schedule is favorable:  toughest games are at home.

12. Oregon     Some team from the mediocre Pac-10 gets a BCS bowl; Ducks figure to be it.

13. Auburn

14. Oklahoma

15. Florida State     New coach Jimbo Fisher invigorates the program.

16. Pittsburgh

17. Penn State

18. Houston     QB Case Keenum threw for over three miles last season (5,671 yards).  He’s back, along with eight other offensive starters from ’09.  We won’t talk about the Cougars’ defense.

19. Georgia

20. Oregon State

21. Utah     Utes have nonconference games vs. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame to prove they belong with the big boys.

22. Georgia Tech 

23. West Virginia

24. Central Florida     Defense will be outstanding; can the Knights’ offense score enough to win?

25. Navy     A second consecutive 10-win season is an achievable goal for the Midshipmen.

You may have reason to disagree with some of these choices, and you’re probably right.  Bear in mind, though, that these selections were not made frivolously, but after several minutes of research.  And what usually happens is that my choices — wrong though they may be – won’t be that different from those of ”experts” who actually get paid to do this.  Yep, we’re all just guessing, aren’t we?

Bowl Picks, Part Three

Having come this far, we might as well polish off the remaining games on the college bowl schedule, the ones being played in January, 2010.  You probably have your own opinions about these games, since most of the participants are schools that got a lot of attention throughout the season.  You don’t need me to tell you about Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy; you’ve seen them play, or at least read about their exploits elsewhere.  In a few instances, though, I can’t resist the impulse to rationalize my picks.  Here they are:

Outback Bowl     Northwestern (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)

 Winner:  Auburn

Gator Bowl     West Virginia (9-3) vs. Florida State (6-6)

Winner:  Florida State

The fact that it’s Bobby Bowden’s final game may provide an emotional lift, and the Seminole players are also auditioning for next year’s coach, Jimbo Fisher.

Capital One Bowl     Penn State (10-2) vs. LSU (9-3)

Winner:  Penn State

Rose Bowl     Oregon (10-2) vs. Ohio State (10-2)

Winner:  Oregon

Their common regular-season opponent was USC, which beat Ohio State… and got thrashed by Oregon.

Sugar Bowl     Florida (12-1) vs. Cincinnati (12-0)

Winner:  Florida

Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly left abruptly to take a similar job at a Catholic school in Indiana.  Then, a couple of weeks later, interim coach Jeff Quinn took the vacant position at Buffalo.  Quinn will stick around long enough to coach this game, and then it’s “see ya”.   The players justifiably feel their leaders have quit on them, so don’t expect maximum effort from the Bearcats.

International Bowl     South Florida (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (7-5)

Winner:  Northern Illinois

South Florida is favored, but the Bulls lost 3 of their last 4 games, and there are reports of dissension in the ranks.

Cotton Bowl     Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Mississippi (8-4)

Winner:  Oklahoma State

PapaJohns.com Bowl     Connecticut (7-5) vs. South Carolina (7-5)

Winner:  South Carolina

Liberty Bowl     East Carolina (9-4) vs. Arkansas (7-5)

Winner:  Arkansas

East Carolina excels at committing penalties — 831 yards were marched off against the Pirates during the 2009 season.

Alamo Bowl     Michigan State (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)

Winner:  Texas Tech

Fiesta Bowl     Boise State (13-0) vs. Texas Christian (12-0)

Winner:  TCU

This could be the best of this season’s bowl games.  It matches the team that led the nation in scoring (Boise St.) against the team that led the nation in total defense (TCU).  Boise State’s QB Kellen Moore threw for 39 TDs with only 3 interceptions.  TCU’s QB Andy Dalton had 22 TDs with 5 interceptions.  Both teams averaged over 40 points per game.  I give the edge to TCU on the strength of its defense.

Orange Bowl     Georgia Tech (11-2) vs. Iowa (10-2)

Winner:  Georgia Tech

Having a month to practice against the triple option may help Iowa somewhat, but the Hawkeyes’ lucky streak has to end sometime.

GMAC Bowl     Central Michigan (11-2) vs. Troy (9-3)

Winner:  Central Michigan

It’s tempting to pick Troy because Central Michigan has abandonment issues – coach Butch Jones was hired to replace Brian Kelly at Cincinnati.  The Chippewas still have QB Dan LeFevour, though; watch him pick apart the Troy secondary, which ranked 117th (out of 120) in pass defense.

BCS Championship     Alabama (13-0) vs. Texas (13-0)

Winner:  Alabama

Bowl Picks, Part Two

As I implied in the earlier post, there are way too many college bowl games.  Since the value of these predictions plummets after the games have been played, I realize that it would be to our mutual advantage for me to get to the point as quickly as possible.  One of these days we’ll resume posts about obscure historical events or my personal travel mishaps, but for now, here are some more of my thoughts — expressed as tersely as possible — about the next batch of games.

Emerald Bowl     USC (8-4) vs. Boston College (8-4)

Because Boston College is 97th in the country in total offense, the USC defense should prevail, giving the Trojans the victory in what I expect to be a relatively low-scoring game.

Music City Bowl     Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-5)

Three Kentucky QBs combined this season for 12 TDs and 10 interceptions.  That won’t get the job done against Clemson, which has a strong defense and enough offense to win.

Independence Bowl     Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5)

This game should supply an answer to the old question, “what happens when a resistible force meets a movable object?”  Georgia is resistible; it was 73rd in the country in total offense.  Texas A&M is movable; it surrendered 30+ points in eight of its games.  My hunch is that Georgia will win.

EagleBank Bowl     UCLA (6-6) vs. Temple (9-3)

The main weapon for UCLA’s woeful offense is its field goal kicker, Kai Forbath.  It’s difficult to imagine him getting into range often enough to beat Temple.

Champs Sports Bowl     Miami (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)

Wisconsin has the best running back in the Big Ten, John Clay.  The Badgers also play stout defense.  Miami has had its moments this season, and the game is in Orlando which means the crowd will no doubt be rooting for the Hurricanes, but I’m picking Wisconsin in a mild upset.

Texas Bowl     Missouri (8-4) vs. Navy (9-4)

Navy was dead last in the nation in passing.  That makes it hard to catch up if you fall behind by a couple of touchdowns.  The defense won’t let that happen, though.  Navy wins.

Humanitarian Bowl     Idaho (7-5) vs. Bowling Green (7-5)

Wide Receiver Freddie Barnes of Bowling Green averaged 11.5 receptions per game, for a total of 1,551 yards.  Idaho’s defense yielded an average of 35 points per game.  This looks like a win for Bowling Green.

Holiday Bowl     Nebraska (9-4) vs. Arizona (8-4)

This game is worth watching just to see Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, the nation’s best college football player.  It will not be a high-scoring affair, but Nebraska might be able to kick a couple of field goals and win it.

Sun Bowl     Stanford (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (7-5)

The oddsmakers have made Oklahoma a solid favorite;  that’s presumably based on Oklahoma’s strong defense.  Stanford is awful at pass defense (105th in the country), but RB Toby Gerhart is a difference-maker.  I’ll take Stanford, and keep my fingers crossed that the Cardinal secondary can make some plays.

Armed Forces Bowl     Air Force (7-5) vs. Houston (10-3)

Here’s an intriguing matchup:  statistically, Air Force has the country’s best pass defense (avg. 148 yds/gm).  Houston has QB Case Keenum, who threw for 3,325 yds and 39 TDs, making him #1 in the country in pass offense.  I’m going with Houston.

Insight Bowl     Minnesota (6-6) vs. Iowa State (6-6)

This should be called the Contractual Obligation Bowl: somebody had to take these two middling teams that managed to get themselves bowl-eligible.  They shared a common opponent — Iowa — and Iowa State’s loss to the Hawkeyes was by a more humiliating margin, so I’ll take Minnesota.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl     Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. Tennessee (7-5)

Tennessee played well against Florida and Alabama.  The Volunteers just might rise up again, but Virginia Tech finally got rolling with RB Ryan Williams; I like the Hokies’ chances to win.

That gets us through the games of 2009. Games to be played in January, 2010, will be covered in a future post.

Bowl Picks, Part One

After a long season, college football’s elite teams — which is to say, more than half of them — have earned the right to play in tradition-rich postseason games.  You can imagine the thrill these young men must feel, getting to play in the Maaco Bowl… or the EagleBank Bowl… or the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.  There are thirty-four bowl games this year, one of which will probably be played in the vacant lot down the block from your house.  To help you sort it all out, here are my opinions about the eventual outcome of each game.  This post will cover the earliest, least interesting games; I’ll put up more predictions later.

New Mexico Bowl     Wyoming (6-6) vs. Fresno State (8-4)

The Wyoming Cowboys have trouble scoring; they ranked 111th in the country in that department.  In this game, they might take some hope from the fact that Fresno State has trouble stopping its opponents from scoring; the Bulldogs were 81st in scoring defense.  The offense, with RB Ryan Mathews (151 yds/gm average) is solid, though, so I expect Fresno State to win fairly easily.

St. Petersburg Bowl     Rutgers (8-4) vs. U of Central Florida (8-4)

Rutgers is an enigma:  it was crushed by Cincinnati, which is understandable since the Bearcats are a good team.  But Rutgers was also crushed by Syracuse, which isn’t a good team.  As recently as a year ago, Central Florida was also not a good team; it went 4-8 in 2008.  The Knights turned it around in 2009, posting a respectable record, and their four losses came at the hands of bowl-bound teams, including Texas and Miami.  Playing the bowl game in Florida might work to their advantage as well, so I’m picking the Knights to beat the Scarlet Knights (UCF over Rutgers).

New Orleans Bowl     Middle Tennessee St. (9-3) v. Southern Mississippi (7-5)

Southern Miss generates offense; the Golden Eagles averaged 33 points per game over the course of the season.  Middle Tennessee State features the aptly-named Dwight Dasher, a QB who had 11 rushing TDs and 21 passing TDs.  Dasher personally accounted for a per-game average of 298 yards (total offense).  Southern Miss is favored, but the Blue Raiders of MTSU might just pull off a mild upset in this one.

Maaco Bowl     Oregon State (8-4) vs. Brigham Young (10-2)

Previously known as the Las Vegas Bowl, this year’s edition features two teams that are only average defensively, but are capable of putting up a lot of points.  The stars of the show at Oregon State are the Rodgers brothers:  RB Jacquizz Rodgers ran for almost 1,400 yards and 20 TDs, WR James Rodgers had 1,000 yards receiving and 9 TDs.  BYU’s main attraction is QB Max Hall, who threw for 30 touchdowns, 3,368 yards — but 14 interceptions.  The Cougars are more highly ranked, but I think Oregon State’s players will be jumping up and down and hugging each other after their victory.

Poinsettia Bowl     Utah (9-3) vs. California (8-4)

Last summer, it seemed likely that both of these teams would be playing in a more prestigious bowl game than this one.  Utah turned out to be just a little better than average in most departments, with the exception of the pass defense, which proved to be quite good.  California looked great in some games — vs. Stanford, for instance — and dreadful in other games — vs. Oregon, USC, Washington.  The season-ending blowout at the hands of the Huskies probably finished them off.  Utah wins.

Hawaii Bowl     Nevada (8-4) vs. Southern Methodist (7-5)

Southern Methodist is to be congratulated for a respectable season after years of misery for the program.  As recently as last year, the Mustangs were 1-11.  Nevada began the 2009 season with three straight losses, but then got rolling.  The Wolf Pack has three 1,000 yard rushers, including QB Colin Kaepernick.  This game will be lopsided, in Nevada’s favor.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl     Ohio (9-4) vs. Marshall (6-6)

This epic, formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, features the team which finished 98th in the country in total offense (Ohio).  They will be struggling to gain yards against Marshall, which lost 3 of their last 4 regular season games.  The only reason to watch this game is to check out the picture quality on the new TV you got for Christmas.  Not to spoil your present, but Ohio will win.

Meineke Car Care Bowl     North Carolina (8-4) vs. Pittsburgh (9-3)

North Carolina has very little offense, and their task won’t be made any easier by Pittsburgh’s stout defense; the Panthers were among the nation’s top 20 against the run.  North Carolina also has an excellent defense, led by DBs Deunta Williams and Kendrick Burney.  Pittsburgh’s main weapon is RB Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,640 yards and 16 TDs in the regular season.  The game is in Charlotte, meaning that the crowd will be pro-Carolina, but I think Pittsburgh will eke out the victory in a close game.

To be continued…

Tom’s Top 25

It’s traditional at this time of year for sports publications, wire services, newspapers, and miscellaneous college football experts to list their preseason top 20 or 25 teams.  I am none of the above, but since 1993 I have felt compelled to publish my own Top 25.  In the past it has been sent on paper, which gave those who received it a convenient way to dispose of their chewing gum.  This is the first time my list has been announced electronically; I can only imagine the excitement you must be feeling at this moment, to be part of history in the making.  Hey!  Wake up!

Before I get to the list, though, let me just make a few comments about some of the teams that are on it (for the first five, see my post of 7/17/09).

After many years of mediocrity, MISSISSIPPI reeled off nine wins last season, including a Cotton Bowl triumph over Texas Tech.  Many experts think the Rebels will be even better in 2009… GEORGIA TECH’s offensive scheme under second-year coach Paul Johnson gives opponents fits… An undefeated season in 2008 propelled UTAH to a #2 ranking in the final AP poll.  Whether the Utes can repeat that level of achievement again seems unlikely, but they will be very, very good… CALIFORNIA has quality, veteran players at most positions; the glaring exception is at quarterback.  If the Bears can find someone decent to plug in at that spot, they just might wind up Pac-10 champions… A strong defense should carry PITTSBURGH through another respectable season… The IOWA Hawkeyes had four losses last season, by a combined total of twelve points.  A creampuff schedule in 2009 should put a couple more games in the win column.  And now, here’s how I rank my top twenty-five picks:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Mississippi
8. Georgia Tech
9. Alabama
10. Utah
11. Boise State
12. California
13. Ohio State
14. Pittsburgh
15. Georgia
16. Texas Tech
17. Iowa
18. LSU
19. Texas Christian
20. Oregon
21. North Carolina
22. Brigham Young
23. Oklahoma State
24. West Virginia
25. Oregon State